Here are the reported Iowa Caucus results:
Romney: 30,015 votes (25%)
Santorum: 30,007 votes (25%)
Paul: 26,219 votes (21%)
Gingrich: 16,251 votes (13%)
Perry: 12,604 votes (10%)
Bachmann: 6,073 votes (05%)
Huntsman: 745 votes (01%)
Cain: 58 votes (I heard a Fox News broadcaster mention this, but haven’t seen it in a chart)
What Had Happened Was…
I had predicted Paul, Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, Perry, Bachmann, Huntsman, Cain, so the top 4 got jumbled and the bottom four were correct.
Cain was going to be last, because he’s out of the race now, but he had qualified for Iowa before he dropped out.
Huntsman was going to be next to last, because he wasn’t campaigning in Iowa at all.
Bachmann was going to be next, because as soon as Perry entered the race, he became Bachmann+Male and soaked up all her votes.
On top of that, the difference between them is that Perry tries to freestyle and fails miserably. Bachmann doesn’t try to freestyle. She just memorizes and regurgitates, which is why she always says the exact same things in the exact same order every time you ask her, like Rosie The Robot.
Perry was going to be next, because he just doesn’t “have it” to be The President.
That was obvious as soon as he started speaking, and became more and more evident in each debate.
Gingrich landed where he did because of elements I hadn’t been aware of.
First of all, the Republican Establishment doesn’t want him to represent them, fearing that he’ll set such a bad example that they’ll lose seats in Congress, not to mention lose the general election to President Obama.
Second, Gingrich had received a religious endorsement, but Romney’s “Super PAC” flooded Iowa Television with scathing advertisements about Gingrich (and Ron Paul added to it, and Perry a little bit, too) that caused his standings in the polls to plummet.
Gingrich didn’t have any money to create and air his own ads to either defend against Romney’s attacks or to attack Romney, so he took a short and lost a lot of potential votes.
Also, I heard there was an incessant Robo-Calling campaign, where people’s phones kept ringing off the hook with messages suggesting whom they should vote for.
The residual effect is that Gingrich is mad now, and should start retaliating against Romney, ASAP. >:D
I think my Ron Paul prediction was off because 41% of the people being polled said they hadn’t made up their minds, the day before the caucus.
That’s something the pundits don’t like to talk about. When you have 22% of the people in your poll saying they’d vote for Romney, that’s only 22% out of 60% of your sample pool.
“UNDECIDED” has been the front-runner in the Republican race for a very long time, which makes them look dumb, so nobody wants to talk about it.
Anyway, I think the undecided people decided to vote for a candidate that can probably actually win the nomination, which Ron Paul can’t, because his views, though heartfelt, are too radical to win an American general election, and everybody knows this.
Santorum basically tied Romney for the win, having lost to him by only 8 votes (30,015 to 30,007). This is because he scored an important endorsement:
URBANDALE, Iowa: Rick Santorum received a big Iowa endorsement Tuesday that should help rally the splintered Christian evangelical community here around him. A social conservative leader in the state, Bob Vander Plaats, backed the former Pennsylvania senator just two weeks before the caucuses here, calling him “the Huckabee in this race.”
“I saw him as a champion for the family in the U.S. House, I saw him as a champion for the family in the U.S. Senate. I saw him as a champion for the family on the campaign trail,” Vander Plaats said. “I believe Rick Santorum comes from us, just not to us, he comes from us.”
Vander Plaats heads up the Family Leader, which has not endorsed a candidate before this campaign but said they would this time. But the board deliberated up until last night and “reached unanimity,” according to Vander Plaats, that the organization would not make an endorsement. Chuck Hurley, who heads the Iowa Family Policy Center, part of the Family Leader, also chose to endorse Santorum outside the organization.
Before this happened, Santorum was nowhere. Congrats to him on what I consider a WIN that was stolen from him, but he’s going to have major problems going forward, unless he scores religious endorsements in every single contest from now on.
He also doesn’t have any money, so when Romney decides to have his Super PAC step on Santorum’s neck, it’s all over.
BTW.. “PAC” stands for Political Action Committee => en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_action_committee
What Difference Does It Make?
The so-called winner in Iowa was/is Mitt Romney.
He won with 25% of the vote. Interestingly, this parallels his polling numbers this entire time. He hasn’t been able to get higher than 25% this entire time.. Nowhere.
In fact, according to Boston.com: “Last night, he didn’t expand his base of support beyond what he brought in four years ago. In 2008, when nearly 120,000 votes were cast, Romney got 29,949 votes, or 25.2 percent. Last night, he reached almost exactly the same overall total and percentage. An Iowa GOP official said there would be no recount.”
Of course, this means that 75% of the Republicans that participated tonight voted for Not-Romney.
As far as delegates, this basically means that Romney will get 13 and Santorum will get 12. If they had given the win to Santorum, he would have had one more delegate. So what? The first contests hand out delegates proportionally, as opposed to winner-take-all. According to the Las Vegas Sun:
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won most of the delegates in the Iowa Republican caucuses Tuesday, edging former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
Iowa’s delegates to the national convention are not bound by the results of the caucuses. But an Associated Press analysis showed Romney would win 13 and Santorum would win 12, if there were no changes in their support as the campaign wears on.
Twenty-five delegates were at stake in the caucuses. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas came in third in the voting but was shut out of delegates because he didn’t win any of Iowa’s four congressional districts.
Romney and Santorum each won two congressional districts, and Romney was the statewide winner by a mere eight votes, according to final results announced early Wednesday by the Iowa GOP.
A total of 2,286 delegates are slated to go to the party’s national convention. Support from a majority _ 1,144 _ is needed to claim the Republican nomination to take on incumbent President Barack Obama.
So, Romney received 13 delegates out of the 2,286 that he needs = nothing.
The most important thing that happened tonight is that these people who keep talking all this yang, who are clearly not viable candidates and never were, are going to have to step aside after their poor showings in Iowa.
I predicted incorrectly that Santorum would be gone after this, but that was before he scored the Christian endorsement and surged forward to what I consider a win tonight.
Bachmann, however, got as many votes as she should have gotten. The only two candidates that received fewer than her 6,073 votes are Jon Huntsman, who wasn’t even campaigning in Iowa, with 745 votes, and Herman Cain, who dropped out of the race ENTIRELY three weeks ago, and *still* received 58 votes.
58 people voted for Cain instead of Bachmann, and he’s not even involved anymore. 😀 .. Get a clue. Exit the race gracefully.
Rick Perry made his exit speech:
YouTube Link => youtu.be/D2UFr-fNMa4
Perry received twice as many votes as Bachmann (12,604 to 6,073). He said: “With the voters’ decision tonight, in Iowa, I’ve decided to return to Texas, assess the results of tonight’s caucus, determine whether there is a path forward for myself in this race.”
As people, I think the Republican candidates are ok. Like, they’re real people, if you remove them from the process of attempting to be the elected leader of the United States of America. They’re actually personable when you see them talking to people in a regular fashion, instead of regurgitating slogans about Obama and reciting stock party lines.
Good Luck to Rick Perry, and to Herman Cain also, and to Michele Bachmann when she finally makes her speech. 😀
Welcome To New Hampshire
Moving forward, we have Ron Paul, who’s in a class all by himself.. We have Mitt Romney, who has always been the only viable candidate that the Republicans fielded this cycle.. And we have Gingrich and Santorum, who are going to battle it out for the religious vote, now that Perry’s not going to be involved.
I still say that Santorum will be the next one out of the race. He doesn’t have any money to defend against Romney’s negative ad campaigns. He doesn’t have time to visit every district in every state in the country, like he did in Iowa. This situation was a fluke. If Gingrich would have received the religious endorsement instead of Santorum, Gingrich would have won and Santorum would have been wallowing down in Bachmannville with almost no votes.
Ron Paul will stay in as long as his money lasts. He’s not a real candidate, but he’s bringing important topics to the table, so his supporters will continue to support him. He may end up running as a 3rd-party candidate when he finally gets bumped from the Republican roster.
Gingrich will hang in there long enough to exact some good revenge against Romney for trashing his reputation in Iowa merely to receive 13 delegates. >:D haha This is gonna be good! 😀
Huntsman comes online in New Hampshire. I’m hoping he’ll make a good showing there! 😀
PETERBOROUGH, N.H – Even before the results were in, Republican presidential hopeful Jon Huntsman had a message for whoever won the Iowa caucus: “Welcome to New Hampshire. Nobody cares.”
Huntsman skipped Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses and was counting on a strong showing in the Jan. 10 New Hampshire primary to keep his campaign afloat.
Huntsman finished up his final day of having New Hampshire to himself with a crowded town hall meeting in Peterborough, where a voter asked him what he’d say to the Iowa winner. His short answer — “Welcome to New Hampshire. Nobody cares” — was a bit more direct than he had been in recent days. He has said the rest of the country will forget the Iowa results within days if not hours.
Showing off a more aggressive speaking style, Huntsman won sustained applause from the crowd of about 350 when he repeated his stump speech promise not to pander to voters by “signing all those silly pledges like all the other candidates.” And he answered “Hell, no!” when asked if he’d bail out banks if they sought help to deal with foreign debt.
“I can’t even believe I’m standing here!” he exclaimed at one point, reveling in what likely was the largest crowd he has attracted so far.
The former Utah governor insists that New Hampshire, not Iowa, will send a strong message about electability, but he continues to lag far behind the New Hampshire front-runner, Mitt Romney.
In a perfect world, Huntsman would defeat Romney, and we’d have an interesting contest between Jon Huntsman and Barack Obama for the Presidency. 🙂
In reality, I doubt that’s what’s going to happen. Gingrich is the most serious politician out of the group, and he got completely demolished by Romney’s Super PAC’s commercials. I can’t see any of the other Republican candidates being able to stand up to them either.
The only question that remains is how long before the rest of the candidates quit and it becomes Romney vs. Obama.
Last cycle, Romney quit on February 07, 2008. That leaves a full month for Huntsman, Gingrich, Paul, and Santorum to bounce before we have a repeat performance of the trouncing that McCain and Palin received from Obama.