Here’s my prediction for the 2012 South Carolina Republican primary:

  1. Gingrich
  2. Romney
  3. Paul
  4. Santorum
  5. Cain

The reason I have to include Herman Cain is that Stephen Colbert is running under his name:


YouTube Link => youtu.be/3UOGKO7tM34

If Perry would have foolishly stayed in the race (He should have quit IMMEDIATELY after he got trounced pathetically in Iowa), he would have received fewer votes than Stephen Colbert, who, obviously, isn’t even running for President.

Colbert also would have received more votes than Huntsman, who also dropped out. => L.A. Times: “Jon Huntsman trails Stephen Colbert in South Carolina poll [Video]”

Down Yonder

Now that they’re in the South, the religious vote comes into play.

Romney’s not getting that, because he’s Mormon.

Originally, it was promised to Perry.

As soon as Perry had to interact with actual human beings, instead of posing while someone built campaign commercial videos around his visual image, people realized that a) he wasn’t EVAR going to be able to out-debate our current President, Barack Obama, and b) if Perry SOMEHOW would have become PotUS, we would all be dead soon, because of some STUPID, uninformed, RETARDED statement he made about some country that wasn’t America, leading us into the next Global War => Fox News: “Perry draws Turkey rebuke over debate comments”.

Rick?…… Shall. We. Play. A. Game? o_O


YouTube Link => Evangelical Meeting Spawns Endorsements for Santorum, Gingrich

Gingrich lost some propers because of his multiple “Let me start having sex with some chick I’m not married to, dump my current wife and marry the side-piece” situations => en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newt_Gingrich#Marriages_and_children

However, he’s been gaining position because he keeps treating Santorum like his son. People are going for the way Gingrich talks down to and about Santorum, and they’re figuring that they’d rather send Gingrich to debate Obama than Santorum, because he’ll just get sonned again, and they’ll have to bitch and moan about Obama for another four years, until Hillary’s elected.

Also, Perry endorsed Gingrich when he dropped out, so the 16 people that were going to vote for Rick Perry are now going to vote for Newt Gingrich.

This will leave Santorum in last place, if you don’t count Stephen Colbert.

Ron Paul’s supporters are steady. He neither rises nor falls in the polls. Everybody knows he’s an old-ass man that’s mentally reliving the gold rush, Miner 49’er days, so they cheer him on and vote for him.

I suspect that with the religious vote being split between Gingrich and Santorum, Paul should receive more votes in South Carolina than Santorum, because other than that base, nobody votes for Santorum.

Snapping

The reason I think Gingrich will defeat Romney in South Carolina, besides religion, is that Romney can’t snap.

Snapping, Joaning, Playing The Dozens, is a social form of entertainment, whereby one person attempts to make the other person look bad to the crowd, and FEEL BADLY about themselves as a person.

Newt Gingrich is very good at this. Mitt Romney *SUCKS* at it.

Remember when you were in elementary school and there was the fat kid and the skinny, rich kid? 😀 haha Who was better at snapping? The fat kid was.

That’s because everybody’s been coming at the fat kid for his entire life, and he’s used to being in verbal battles, and he’s used to having to come up with good snaps on the fly to kick people’s asses with, being that he already knows they’re going to come at him with fat jokes.

Meanwhile, everybody’s been riding the rich kid’s jock, so they refuse to say *ANYTHING* negative about him so they can be invited to the parties at his mansion where they raid his father’s liquor cabinet and get high… (Yes.. This is what friends of mine were doing in elementary school. >:D)

So the fat kid has all the practice, and the rich kid has none of it. There’s no contest. the fat kid is going to demolish the rich kid because he’s easy to break. This is why you see Romney losing his cool every week, every time someone asks him something that causes him to have to deviate from the cue cards he memorized before the debate.

This is why Romney says stupid stuff when he freestyles, like “I’m from the streets” or whatever nonsense he said… In fact.. I owe Michele Bachmann a quasi-apology, because I called out that quality for her several times, and I never called it for Romney, because he was so busy shutting the **** up during the debates that I didn’t realize he was doing the exact same thing.

Flash Cards

Both of them memorize and regurgitate information. It’s not just Bachmann. This is why you’re like “HUH??? o_O” whenever Romney goes off-script.

$10,000 bet? HAHAHA are you ******* CRAZY??? 😀

$10k to Romney is like a penny to me. Imagine me offering someone a bet for a ******* PENNY! 😀

This is what I mean. What he says doesn’t make any sense, unless he’s reciting information he previously memorized. You can take his statements from the debates and overlap them almost verbatim. You already know what he’s going to say, because he’s using his mental teleprompter.

This is why I think Gingrich will beat Romney today in South Carolina. The more debates they have, the cooler Gingrich looks as a freestyle snapper, and the more robotic Romney looks.

The Republicans don’t want to send someone to debate Obama that’s going to look like a sucker. They want to send someone that they think will act tough at the podium.

Unfortunately, the “establishment” Republicans would rather not see Gingrich as their nominee, fearing that he’ll make them look so bad with his unpredictable shenanigans that they’ll start losing seats in Congress.

This is why all of the important endorsements have gone to Romney, while Gingrich receives backing from Sarah Palin and Rick Perry, which one pundit described as someone throwing you a lead life jacket if you were drowning. 😀

So, overall, I still see Romney as the Republican nominee, unless Gingrich can son Santorum into dropping out very soon.

Romney has problems with getting more than 30% of the vote, so far, so with Paul taking up another 20%, if there’s only one non-Romney left, he should easily pull 40%-50% from here on out.

If Santorum stays in the pocket, he’ll keep splitting that extra 50% with Gingrich, allowing Romney to continue to squeak by with low-enthusiasm victories.

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3 Comments

  1. Hi Bill,

    congratulations on your correct prediction!
    Just stopping by to tell you how much I appreciate what you have been doing with your blog lately!
    Florida primary is tomorrow, right? What is your prediction for that one?

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