This 2012 Republican nomination process has gone from amusing to funny to stupid to embarrassing to pathetic.
When I first started watching this fiasco unfold, I figured the end result would be exactly what Ann Coulter said:
YouTube Link => youtu.be/vo6SOpOE788
If we replace Chris Christie’s name in her statement with “a viable Republican candidate”, we arrive at my statement at the time.. If the Republicans didn’t get a viable candidate to run, they were going to nominate Romney and they were going to lose, barely, to President Obama.
When none of the preferred Republicans were willing to run for PotUS.. Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, Haley Barbour, Mitch Daniels.. I felt that the inevitable conclusion was that Romney was going to be nominated, because as I said then and as I still maintain now, he’s the only REAL candidate that’s been involved in the process, and the rest of the guys and gals were all filler content to make it look like the Republicans ever had a choice.
The rest of the candidates were supposed to look SO BAD when compared to Romney that he was supposed to come through this process looking like someone people might take a chance on as being the leader of this entire country = the leader of the entire world.
That’s not how things went, and at this point, like I said two months ago, back in December, 2011 http://billcammack.com/2011/12/11/brokered-conventions/ the pundits are *NOW* talking about Brokered Conventions every day.
The short version of my December article that I linked is that if none of the current candidates secures the requisite number of delegates by the end of the process, the Republicans aren’t obliged to run ANY. OF. THEM! o_O
So, all this tomfoolery between Gingrich, Romney, Paul, and Santorum might get thrown out the window so the Republicans can decide at their National Convention to run Jeb Bush instead.
How interesting would that be, if all these so-called “candidates” have been tossed to the mass media to be made incessant fun of because of their own stupid statements, and then NONE OF THEM end up advancing to the general election? :D
If you look at the numbers elections.nytimes.com/2012/primaries/delegates, there are approximately 2,286 available delegates.
To definitely receive the nomination and not get jerked at the Convention, one of the “candidates” has to secure 1,144 delegates.
Up until now, the delegates have been assigned proportionally, meaning that if you win a state with the most votes, that doesn’t mean that you get all the delegates. It’s something to the effect of there are voting districts that award you delegates if you win them and voting districts that award you NOTHING if you win them. The important thing for these candidates to do is win the most districts that actually contain delegates.
Let’s not count everyone’s current delegates, because there are only two candidates in this race.. Romney, and Not-Romney.
Currently, according to the chart, Romney has 105 delegates, and the rest of the candidates combined have 120. This means that Romney has less than 50% of the delegates that have been awarded so far.
1,144 delegates to win is approximately 50% of the 2,286 delegates available…
You see where this is going, right? :D
If the trend continues the way it has been so far, Romney will fail to secure the nomination before the Republican Convention, and then all bets are off.
I’m not saying that anyone else will have enough delegates to win, but that they *DEFINITELY* have the potential, at this point in time, to block Romney from being nominated.
This entire time, Romney has been polling around 30%, which, again, is less than 50%. Way less.
What he’s been counting on is that eventually, we get to the winner-takes-all states, and he’s going to squeak by with a bunch of 30% wins and end up with the delegates he needs.
When I first started writing about this stuff, I agreed with that assessment. Now, I’m not so sure that’s going to work out just the way he planned it.
YouTube Link => youtu.be/sLRwdbg1xME
The reason why the different also-rans have been said to be “surging” is that Romney’s support has remained consistent, while the rest of them come from nowhere to somewhere, passing Romney in polling until we find out that they were paying women’s rent that weren’t their wives, or that they have historically, serially cheated on their wives until dumping the wife for the chick they were cheating with, or they sound like COMPLETE IDIOTS when they speak freely in debates, or whatever else has knocked off the other “candidates” so far.
The problem for Romney right now is that as the “surgers” have disappeared and eventually exited the race entirely, virtually NONE of their support has gone to Romney.. It’s all gone to the next potential Not-Romney, which is why Republicans are praying, wishing, and begging for a Brokered Convention.
The reason that’s a problem for him is that 30% will never be greater than not-30%, which is 70%.
Now, we know Ron Paul isn’t exiting the process. He’s amassing delegates so he gets to speak at the Convention and talk about liberty. He can’t be discouraged from continuing, because his goal isn’t to win, but rather to have decision-making power when the national spotlight is on Republicans.
Gingrich, on the other hand, after being *SMASHED* by Romney’s Super PAC by millions of dollars’ worth of negative ads that flooded television stations and caused his polling numbers to nosedive, could possibly exit the race… The only reason he isn’t is so that he can jerk Romney for dragging his name through the mud and try to get him back by ruining his chances to win, and that’s exactly what’s happening.
Race To The Bottom
The problem with Gingrich staying in the race is that he’s a way better speaker than Romney. Every time Romney goes off-script, and I mean AN ACTUAL SCRIPT THAT HE NEEDS TO READ, he commits some kind of political gaffe, which is actually a lack of ability to prevent his actual views about life from spilling out of his mouth.
The longer Gingrich stays in the race, the more times Romney has to freestyle. The more Romney freestyles, the worse he looks. Meanwhile, Santorum has been sitting on the sidelines, not getting dirtied by either Romney or Gingrich, but that’s about to change dramatically. Ron Paul isn’t involved because everybody knows he’s not going to be nominated, so there’s no sense in wasting money making negative attack ads about him.
The effect of this race dragging on has gone in a different direction than I predicted.
I thought that compared to all these non-candidates, Romney would eventually emerge as the guy that all Republicans need to back if they want even the slightest chance of a victory vs. President Obama.
What actually happened, though, is that because Romney couldn’t get them all to quit, because they know that Not-Romney is a way more desirable candidate than Romney, and they want to be the last Not-Romney standing.. Instead of turning the corner and being able to talk trash about Obama, Romney is *STILL* in a position where he has to talk trash about Gingrich and Santorum.
The problem with that is that in order to talk trash about Gingrich and Santorum, you have to portray yourself as even more of a jerk than they are.
This is not going to play out in Romney’s favor in the general election.
My original prediction of Romney being the only one that can win the general election for the Republicans was based on the fact that he’s the only one that’s well known for flip-flopping on issues… just about *ALL* issues.
In fact, what Republicans currently refer to as ObamaCare was originally RomneyCare, from when he was Governor of Massachusetts:
The folks who worked on the Massachusetts law didn’t exactly fade into the background once the health reform law passed and implementation got underway. Instead, many former Romney officials are now working for both the Obama administration and state governments to ensure that that the Affordable Care Act gets set up.
I figured this would help Romney in the general, because he would be able to tell people that he wasn’t that far off from Obama’s thinking, so they should elect him as a change from how the economy’s been going.
Unfortunately, he can’t play that card until he gets past Gingrich and Santorum… Until then, he has to pretend to be a Conservative.
Everybody knows Romney isn’t a Conservative (or, anything, really.. he just wants to be elected), so the longer he has to pretend to be one, the more inauthentic he looks, saying freestyle garbage like “I was a Severely Conservative Republican Governor”:
YouTube Link => youtu.be/DI8PlTtM7DU
What the hell is a SEVERELY Conservative person? :D haha Imagine you asked your homeboy how his date went, and he replies “I severely had sex with her! :D”, you *KNOW* that dude is LYING!!! :D HAHAHAHA
So, the net effect of this situation dragging on is *NOT* that Romney looks better, but that he looks worse… Daily… Some days, HOURLY! :D
Meanwhile, Ron Paul’s reputation has remained perfectly intact, even in light of the “I don’t know who wrote all those racist comments in the newsletterS with my name on them” situationS.
Gingrich’s name is mud with women, because his current wife is actually the mistress that he cheated on his mistress that he cheated on his first wife with en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newt_Gingrich#Marriages_and_children, so women are constantly reminded of his ex wives that he dumped after announcing to them that he’s screwing some other chick now.
Guys, generally, don’t care about that. They’re like “Play on, Playah! ha-HAA :D Get In Where You FIT IN!!! >;D”.
Santorum is making himself more viable for the Republican nomination and less viable for the general election every day with his comments about women, contraception and a host of other ridiculous ideas of his that caused someone on television to say “Santorum has the finest mind of the 13th century”:
One dismissive reviewer of Santorum’s 2005 book, “It Takes a Family,” wrote in The Philadelphia Inquirer that Santorum is “one of the finest minds of the thirteenth century.” (An opponent once said the same of that other provocative Catholic conservative, William F. Buckley, Jr.) This is no insult: it is the heart of Santorum’s appeal to conservative evangelicals.
So, the only way for Romney to look good to Conservatives is to attempt to appear to be more of a jerk than Santorum. Romney isn’t even good at THAT! :D haha He’s just not convincing as someone who has principled objections to things. Everything he says seems to be learned off of 3×5 cards that his handlers trained him with.
In fact, it’s tough to pretend to have a position on something when that particular thing doesn’t matter to you at all… In Romney’s case, he’s rich, his father was rich, his sons are rich..
The Romney Kids’ $100 Million Trust Fund
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) — Mitt Romney’s five sons — Matt, Tagg, Craig, Ben and Josh — are sitting pretty with a trust fund worth $100 million.
There’s no reason that Romney should sound authentic in *anything* he says regarding middle class people, and ESPECIALLY not the American poor.
Similarly, I don’t sound authentic when I tell women I love them, because they’re trapped in the movie / fairy tale notion of what love is, and they know I’ve always had women, I have women now, I’m always GOING to have women, and the concept of only being physically attracted to one of them doesn’t register with me.. it isn’t my personal reality.
I *DO* love them if I tell them I do, but my detachment makes me appear inauthentic when I say it.
It also makes me appear inauthentic when I say it to more than one woman as we’re all standing together on a balcony at a party, but that’s neither here nor there. >:D
So.. Romney, who appears to believe in nothing, because he doesn’t have to believe in anything, because he’s rich already, and he’s never going to be not-rich, isn’t able to convince Conservatives that he loves them, so he has to keep making stupid statements to prove his fidelity.
Meanwhile.. Rick Santorum ACTUALLY. BELIEVES. WHAT. HE’S. SAYING!!! :D hahahaha oh man.. You can see that he actually believes it when he’s speaking.
This is why Conservatives are flocking to him.. Not because they think he can win, but because they’re not convinced that Romney would carry the Conservative flag (and neither am I) if he were nominated. They’d rather go down swinging, backing Santorum, than relegate themselves to the very choice that made me feel that Romney had a chance in the general, which is a decision between Obama and Almost-Obama.
Just Like I Told You
Meanwhile, we’ve seen an important shift occur.. A shift that I told people this entire time was going to happen.
President Obama’s favorability ratings were low a few months ago. They were so low that Republicans were telling me, and they really seemed to believe this, but then again, Jim Jones’ followers believed him too, that *ANYBODY* the Republicans ran would easily be able to defeat Obama in the 2012 election.
I told those people very simply, and directly to their faces “That’s because the people being polled don’t know what kind of candidates you’ve offered as an alternative.”
I told them that the more the American people understood about the Republican candidates, ESPECIALLY when Perry, Bachmann, and Cain were still involved, the better Obama’s going to look.
That’s exactly what’s happened, and what will continue to happen until Gingrich drops out. The Republicans are in a race to the bottom. The only selection to be made is which one of them is the least worst.
Meanwhile, Obama’s ratings have been steadily climbing. When the polls changed from “Obama vs. Any Republican” to “Obama vs. Romney” and “Obama vs. Santorum” and “Obama vs Gingrich” (since they refuse to give Ron Paul any light, whatsoever, in these polls), the numbers have been steadily rising for Obama and steadily declining for all three Republicans.
This is because they insist on ripping each other apart, like crabs in a barrel.
We never hear about why one of them is better than the other one. We only hear why one of them is worse than the other one, and they’re doing Obama’s campaigning job for him.
Another thing I told you four months ago, back in October billcammack.com/2011/10/28/scorched-earth-politics/ was that the Republicans needed to change their obstructionist tactics after Obama started telling the entire country what they were doing… As soon as The President started going from state to state, speaking to the actual people and on television, talking about “Pass This Bill” so that teachers and construction workers and Armed Forces veterans can get jobs, right now, and Republicans refused to do it, while simultaneously *NOT* offering an alternative plan to put those same people to work, they trapped themselves, and just like I said, every day since then, they’ve been taking a beating in the media for being AGAINST job creation for Americans.
Now.. Not only does everybody know that they’re doing anything they can to deny President Obama a second term,
YouTube Link => youtu.be/2gM-1HbK4qU
but the economy is getting better, *DESPITE* their objections and interference.
Instead of being able to take credit for the (albeit, slow) American economic recovery by claiming bipartisan cooperation, they currently look like a bunch of people that have tried and failed to make the current President look bad, while simultaneously failing to get any of their desired party members to run for PotUS and instead offering us this clown show that has many people believing the Republicans are deliberately throwing the race, because they can make more money bitching and moaning about Democrats for another four years than they would if they were actually in office.
Do You Know Any Women?
So the newest trend amongst Republicans is to attempt to get back on the wrong side of history with women’s reproductive rights. :D
I think the creepiest part of everything I’ve watched over the last several months is that these people either HAVE NO CLUE or DON’T GIVE A DAMN about the people that they flippantly disrespect.
They really seem to have forgotten that women can vote now.
They can also hold jobs, own property, ask men out on dates…
Here’s a tip for y’all.. There’s what women SAY, and what women DO.
This is why a lot of women (though I refuse to believe statistics that say things like 98% of any group does anything www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/the-claim-that-98-percent-of-catholic-women-use-contraception-a-media-foul/2012/02/16/gIQAkPeqIR_blog.html) use contraception and then TELL YOU THEY DON’T.
This is why, as pathetic as your candidates already are, you’re alienating Independents, which you’re going to *NEED* in the general election.
You’re also alienating Republican Women who don’t feel like returning to the dark ages.
So.. As Usual.. As has been the pattern throughout these proceedings, you’re pandering to the people that are already going to vote for you, while simultaneously alienating the people who were on the fence and MIGHT have voted for you.
The only hope the Republicans have at this point is a quick and decisive win by one of the final four that leads to the rest of them dropping out, so they can get back on-message, and the choice becomes Republicans vs. Democrats, instead of Republicans vs. Republicans and Republicans vs. The Poor, and Republicans vs. Women, and…
I still believe Romney is going to be nominated, because he has too much money to spend on negative ad campaigns, compared to Santorum and Gingrich, who are both still in the race only because they each have billionaire “sugar daddies” throwing money at them:
If he takes too long to get them to quit, though, his reputation as someone with passionate convictions about anything at all will be zero, nada, zilch.
If Santorum gets the nomination because Gingrich drops out, Paul pulls a consistent 20% of the vote, and Romney pulls a consistent 35% of the vote, leaving 45% winner-take-all victories for Santorum, he will have successfully painted himself into the corner of being the wacko “He-Man Woman Haters Club” founder and president, energizing American women from coast to coast to vote not necessarily FOR Obama, but definitely AGAINST Santorum.
If Gingrich gets the nomination, he’s going to go BUCK WILD in debates against Obama and make Republicans seem like creeps, most likely leading to several seat losses to Democrats in the next set of elections. Congress’ approval rating is already down around 9% (meaning that 9 out of 100 people actually like how they’re carrying themselves in Washington), so Gingrich running around illin’ will most likely be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.
If Paul gets the nomination, that would probably indicate that Republicans in Congress have irretrievably destroyed their brand, and need to rebuild their party from the ground up for the 2016 campaign.
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