I expect Hillary Clinton to be elected President of the United States of America tomorrow.
I’ve *BEEN* tired of talking about this ridiculous election cycle, so I’ll mention some reasons why I believe she’ll win, and make a couple of other points so we can see if anything I have to say is relevant in the future.
I’m a freelance video editor. linkedin.com/in/BillCammack
I know, literally, *thousands* of businesspeople. My record in getting paid would be a solid 100%, except for three instances, two of which were not my fault. 😀
When I was first starting out, like FIRST starting out, before becoming a professional video editor and doing projects for associates of associates, I edited a video for this guy whom I was told by the person who introduced us to get paid 100% up front from. I didn’t want to do that for several reasons.
One reason is that I learn more from how I personally feel about situations that have happened to me than I do from hearing stories from other people about what happened to them. I still LEARN the lesson, but in a different, more poignant way when it’s a personal experience. The fact that I was told ahead of time that the person was monetarily untrustworthy made me want to know how it felt to work with someone like that.
Another reason is that I was building my resume at the time and I wasn’t working for money anyway. I was already getting my money from computer programming, and video editing was a hobby that I was turning into a career, just like recently I’ve turned my hobby of record producing into a career.
A third reason was that regardless of whether the person was a deadbeat, I wanted to do the project. To his credit, he asked me how much it would be up front and I deliberately told him that we’d figure it out later because if he had balked at the price, it would have affected my interest in working on his video and doing the best job I could. My goal at the time was to create a quality video for him and to have another element to show on my resume, as well as to prove to myself, again, that I could take raw material and craft it into a quality finished product.
When I was finished, he balked at the price! 😀 haha Which I had expected. I asked him how much he could afford, and we came up with a lower price that I wasn’t happy about but I was willing to accept from him. He didn’t pay the modified discount price at all.
Maybe a year later, he had the nerve to contact me to attempt to get another video made.
The only reason I returned his call was to say “You know you never paid me for the video I did for you, right?”
There was silence on the phone, and then I said something like “Call me back when you have my money.” and hung up on him.
That exercise served its purpose. I knew what it felt like not to trust someone to pay me. I never worked for anybody I didn’t trust ever again.
The two instances that were not my fault were both for the exact same reason. Both times, I accepted work through people whom I didn’t know their client didn’t respect. Because of this, both clients felt like they could disrespect me as well.
Let’s just say I got 100% of my money in both of those situations.
I say all that to say that as a real world professional, I can’t stand people who don’t pay what they owe.
In a lot of cases in life, your word is all you have.
Your word is all you *are*.
If your word is worthless, you’re worthless.
So, for me, articles like “USA TODAY exclusive: Hundreds allege Donald Trump doesn’t pay his bills” were the *absolute* deal breaker as far as doing *ANY* kind of business with Trump, much less wanting someone like that having *ANY* say in government that could affect my lifestyle or the lives of anyone I care about.
There are A LOT OF ACCOUNTS of people having the wrong thing happen when they did business with Trump -> “Donald Trump’s many business failures, explained”.
Being a businessperson was *ALL* Trump was bringing to the table.
I think that around the exact same time that I learned that nuclear war existed, I also learned that if one country attacks another one, there’s going to be a simultaneous counterattack, and a lot of people on both sides are going to DIE.
That was probably around 3rd or 4th grade, which means I had to be around 9-10 years old.
To watch a grown-ass man in the year 2016 have this exchange on videotape in front of a live audience was appalling.
TRUMP: Look, nuclear should be off the table. But would there be a time when it could be used, possibly, possibly?
MATTHEWS: OK. The trouble is, when you said that, the whole world heard it. David Cameron in Britain heard it. The Japanese, where we bombed them in ’45, heard it. They’re hearing a guy running for president of the United States talking of maybe using nuclear weapons. Nobody wants to hear that about an American president.
TRUMP: Then why are we making them? Why do we make them? We had (inaudible).
MATTHEWS: Because of the old mutual assured destruction, which Reagan hated and tried to get rid of.
The crowd actually LAUGHED AT TRUMP when Matthews was so amazed and said “You might use it in Europe? :O”
This is because they’re educated and they knew what Trump was saying even when Trump didn’t know what Trump was saying.
If the business situation hadn’t been the main deal breaker, *THIS* would have been.
The reason you want someone to be President is because you feel like THEY KNOW MORE THAN YOU DO and would do a better job running the country than you would.
If you’re going to have some idiot run the country, you may as well do it yourself.
I’m not interested in who Trump likes or doesn’t like. According to everything I’ve read, Trump doesn’t even have any friends, so how are you going to expect him to like *ANYBODY*?
Having said that.. Everybody knew four years ago when Romney got squashed that no more Republicans are winning *ANY* Presidential elections evAr again in life without the Hispanic vote.
The reason for this is procreation rates, even though people like to make themselves feel better by saying it’s because Mexicans are walking across the border.
Nope. “Sorry”. They’re making more kids than you are at a faster rate than you are, so you’re rapidly losing market share.
I live in New York City. I know chicks that were on their third kid by 21 years old. I also know chicks that are 34 and considering whether they’re going to have THEIR FIRST kid or not, sometime in the hypothetical future when it won’t interfere with their business careers.
So the first thing Trump does is start disrespecting Hispanics for no reason at all.
I don’t care that he did that other than the fact that it shows that he was never actually trying to be President.
I already went over that 8 months ago, in “Donald Trump Is Playing With You Because He Knows You Don’t Count” so I won’t repeat it here.
If Trump would have left all that nonsense out and acted like a regular human being after he got the Republican nomination, he would have been WAAAAAYYY ahead in the polls right now, and very likely would have won the election.
Like I said, the election is still tomorrow, so there’s a slim chance that he still might win in spite of himself, so we’ll see what happens.
This was an indication that he was going off-script from what Republicans needed to do this cycle. This is partially because Trump IS NOT a Republican, but that’s a different issue because everything he’s done during his campaign has been ATTRIBUTED TO REPUBLICANS, so he’s been dragging them all into the mud with him.
I don’t care that one black man stands up and asks Trump a question in the town hall debate and Trump automatically starts talking about the ghetto as if he automatically knows where this man lives… Which would be “hell”, since that’s where Trump assumes minorities live. 😀
As I said before.. Trump doesn’t like *ANYBODY*, so there’s no point in attempting to personalize the things he says as if he specifically dislikes YOU.
Look at how Trump turns IMMEDIATELY on people he suddenly doesn’t like, even if he just finished praising them the day before, because they were doing things he wanted them to do. It’s a completely juvenile mentality and entirely unstable and volatile.
Incessant Baseless Babbling
You can’t even properly label what Trump says as “lying”.. He just has no relationship at all with the truth.
Trump reverse engineers his conversation. He tells you what he wants you to think and what he wants you to do.
Trump says stuff like “The Failing New York Times” because he wants you to believe they’re failing. He doesn’t know if they’re failing or not. It doesn’t matter to him because he doesn’t see any value in the truth.
There’s no point in him speaking at all if he isn’t trying to convince you of something.
What should he care whether what he’s saying is true or not? \o/
Trump lies so much it’s a regular occurrence:
The Star’s Washington Bureau Chief, Daniel Dale, has been following Donald Trump’s campaign for months. He has fact checked thousands of statements and found hundreds of falsehoods.
Sure, all politicians lie. But Donald Trump is in a class by himself.
He lies strategically. He lies pointlessly. He lies about important things and meaningless things. Above all, he lies frequently. Since he began his campaign last June, the Republican presidential candidate has subjected America to a daily barrage of inaccuracy and mendacity.
His rival, Hillary Clinton, has her own reputation for dishonesty. Some of it is no doubt earned: she has made false claims this campaign about her email scandal, about her flip-flop on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and about assorted other things. But our scrutiny shows there is just no comparison in their level of accuracy on the campaign trail. At the three presidential debates, for example, we counted 104 false claims for Trump to 13 for Clinton.
The extreme, unprecedented quantity of Trump falsehoods is why we started fact-checking everything he said. From mid-September through Sunday, we did 28 “#TrumpCheck” analyses of every word he uttered or tweeted in a given day.
The total: 560 false claims, or a neat 20 per day.
Below, find the complete list of the false statements Dale has found.
After that (very long) list, Tanya Talaga examines the errors, exaggerations and lies for patterns. Some remain hard to explain.
If your word is worthless, you’re worthless.
Trump’s like the dude at the bar that will say ANYTHING to get the chick to spread her legs.
If you can’t trust what someone is saying, how can you believe they’re going to actually DO anything they told you they were going to do?
This is why every time they talk about Trump’s base of voters, they mention “without a college education”.
You have to have a certain amount of education and life experience to understand how egregious these situations are and why they’re disqualifying.
Same thing with the 2016 Al Smith Dinner where Trump demonstrated his lack of civilization by not taking a break from spitting venom at an event hosted by a religious figure in the name of attracting charitable donations for underprivileged children.
If Trump doesn’t know how to act at a social event, how badly do you think he would fuck up if he EVER was put in charge of interacting with foreign leaders?
I don’t even want to think about it and I completely hope that isn’t the reality the USA moves forward into after tomorrow’s election.
The Flashlight Isn’t The Vermin
Trump didn’t CREATE problems in the USA. He merely rained and unearthed all the slugs.
A whole lot of people whom the media has been pretending this entire time didn’t exist have now exposed themselves.
As Trump didn’t create them, Trump also will not be able to educate them. These same people will be voting again in the next national election.
And by “slugs”, I don’t mean good, hard-working, normal people. I mean creeps whose thoughts, statements, and actions are as detestable as the creeps normally shown in the media, but who have been swept under the rug until now in order to pretend there’s a difference between creepy communities across the country.
It’s all well & good when they vote in their local elections because they believe what they believe because everyone around them believes the same thing. This is where you get fanatics like Santorum & Huckabee who are complete ZEROS on the national stage. May as well throw in Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, & Michele Bachmann while we’re at it.
These people are good enough for the areas they live in. Outside of that?.. Nope.
This is why it was so easy for Trump to defeat the Republican nobodies that tried to defeat him in their race for the nomination. None of them were electable to begin with.
Ben Carson? 😀 hahaha BOBBY JINDAL??? 😀 hahahaha GTFO
So Trump, someone who was born into a rich family and doesn’t have any friends, convinced millions of people that he was interested in their well-being and helping them to get manufacturing jobs in the USA when Trump’s own shirts are created overseas: cnn.com/2016/05/26/politics/trump-clothing-foreign-made/.
Trump promised them all kinds of things with no indication of *HOW* he plans to make any of that happen. Building walls. Kicking out millions of people that the USA depends on for labor. Stopping immigration without ever mentioning Canada. Trump even said he’s going to fix inner city “hell”, and the only way he can do that is to impose martial law and kill the killers.
At the same time, Trump did something important, which was bring the issues of blue collar flyover state workers to the forefront.
Personally, I’ve been aware of them ever since Michael Moore started doing his documentaries about places like Flint, Michigan. Putting myself in their shoes, I would have been pretty disgusted, watching factories being sent overseas and having the people told “let them eat cake”.
Unfortunately for them, neither Republicans nor Democrats have come up with any AMAZING solutions for them, and I personally don’t think anyone ever will, so it’s good that Trump has inadvertently brought this discussion to the forefront.
It may not be in the forefront for the right reasons, though. All of a sudden, there’s a voting bloc called “uneducated voters” or “voters without college degrees”, and politicians are now wondering who’s going to be able to access these people for future elections.
Without them supporting Trump past the Republican Unelectables and now all the way to having a 30% chance of becoming PotUS, nobody would have cared about them still to this day, like how you don’t see anybody mentioning the Asian vote because they don’t make up enough of the USA population to make any difference at all.
So now, the question is (assuming Trump loses tomorrow), *WHO* is going to have these people in their corner in the 2020 election?
Like I said.. Trump isn’t a Republican, but people think he is, so their names are getting dragged through the mud.
The people who actually ARE Republican politicians have looked incredibly shabby with their waffling about whether they’re going to support Trump or not.
It’s really really really embarrassing.
Hopefully, next time they won’t let someone hijack their party while they stand around doing nothing about it.
However, next time, all those people might be voting 3rd party and have nothing to do with Republicans at all, ensuring that Republicans never win a Presidency ever again in life.
Everything that they were SUPPOSED TO DO, Trump didn’t do.
They knew four years ago that they had to reach out to minorities. Trump blew that one out of the water.
Romney got 6% of the black vote in 2012: ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/
McCain got 4% of the black vote in 2008: ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2008/
McCain = 43% of women. Romney = 44% of women.
McCain = 31% Hispanic. Romney = 27% Hispanic.
According to Politico in September 2016, Trump can expect 17% of the Hispanic vote tomorrow.
They let Trump slide with never saying what he was specifically going to do to implement his so-called policies.
They let Trump slide without showing his tax returns.
They let Trump slide without pledging to support a Republican nominee if he wasn’t selected (again, because Trump isn’t a Republican, so why would he support one?)
The few things Trump DID outline were shouted down by people who actually know what they’re talking about.
ZERO living Presidents endorse Trump. “Former Republican presidents will not endorse Trump”
Nobody who knows what they’re doing wants Trump in control of nukes. “Here’s Why Trump Can’t Be Trusted with the Nuclear Codes”
This entire situation is already an international embarrassment. I can’t even imagine if Trump wins tomorrow.
I expect Trump to lose by a landslide. If that doesn’t happen, Republicans won’t install any safeguards against getting neutered in 2020 like Trump did to them this year.
If the result tomorrow is close, not only will there be a bunch of recounts called for, but it will be evidence that if it doesn’t happen this year, the lunatics may be running the asylum by 2020.
I’ve Seen “Deliverance”
Four years ago, I wanted President Obama to be reelected, but I wasn’t at all concerned for the country if Romney would have won.
In fact, I wrote billcammack.com/2012/04/03/romney-is-a-nice-guy/.
Right now, I’m completely convinced that if Trump wins, the USA is screwed.
Trump has been put through *ZERO* tests for competence.
Trump has been put through *ZERO* tests for trustworthiness.
Trump has been put through *ZERO* tests for being able to read above a 3rd grade level.
I can’t imagine in the year 2016 that someone so unqualified for ANYTHING would be elected President.
Regardless of how I feel, it might happen, so let’s look at a couple of reasons why it shouldn’t.
1) The polls don’t usually accurately represent Spanish-speaking voters. I expect there to be more Hispanic voting than people are counting on, which is the drone strike Trump unnecessarily orchestrated against himself via several months of abject disrespect.
2) There’s a discrepancy between how many votes Trump is getting and how many votes down-ballot Republicans are getting. The early voting statistics are reporting how many Democrats and Republicans cast ballots, but not the content of those ballots.
For instance, this poll dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html# has Trump losing by 1% while the Republican running for the Senate is winning by 11%.
This indicates that either people are voting for the Republican Senator without voting for Trump, *OR* that they’re voting for the Republican Senator *AND* voting for Hillary.
Neither scenario is good for Trump, but it goes to show that counting the number of Democrat and Republican ballots that were turned in doesn’t specifically indicate the number of votes each Presidential candidate received.
3) If Trump drops Florida (29 electoral votes), it’s all over. That should happen when the Hispanic vote gets in.
As far as I can tell, Hillary should win with more than 300 electoral votes.
President Obama pulled 322 electoral votes against Romney in 2012.
President Obama pulled 365 electoral votes against McCain in 2008.
I don’t actually believe in the alternate universe where Trump is ever PotUS, but there’s definitely a statistical chance that that could happen.
If it does, fine. We all have to live with it. (or not)
Some people are serious about moving to Canada. Some people only say that so they can laugh when they feel like crying.
I’m just glad this entire thing is going to be over one way or the other.
It’s been ridiculous having to even CONSIDER Trump as President (*shudder*).
It’s been even worse having to discuss that possibility with numbskulls who aren’t any more intelligent than Trump is.
A Trump win, however, would be the canary in the coal mine.
Living in one of the intellectual centers of the USA, New York City, it’s easy to forget about and entirely disregard what people in the flyover states are thinking or doing.
If Trump wins, it might just be the advance notice we need that things are about to get really weird in this country so we can make adjustments before it’s too late.